Status Quo Bias is our tendency to prefer things to stay the way they are, treating the current state as a sacred reference point from which deviation feels like a catastrophic loss, regardless of whether the current state is actually working. It is the cognitive equivalent of me wearing the same pants year after year even though one pant leg is ripped, the legs are too short, and the elastic band is now non-existent. Like it or Not We Get Stuck in Our Ways While we can laugh [...]

Why I hate to be a “Sell Out” Selling something you love, even when it makes sense, can feel like losing a limb. I just finished a multi-year, multi-step plan, of converting my pre-tax 401k account to a Roth IRA, and while I should be celebrating the accomplishment, I feel more like licking my wounds. Selling Out, Wounds, What?  The Background. Since retiring from ConocoPhillips in 2021, I began to convert my 401k and Sarah’s Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. So in 2022 through today our [...]

Imagine sitting on the edge of a dock gazing across a dark blue ocean. Each wave crashing at your feet represents a moment in your life, fleeting and irreplaceable. Time, like each wave, is both abundant and finite. It's a resource we often take for granted, yet it's the most precious one we possess. Every second that ticks by is a moment we don’t get back, an opportunity to make a choice, take action, or savor. How we choose to spend our time defines the very essence of [...]

As a dedicated saver turned professional investor, I’ve come to recognize the importance of making rational, data-driven investment decisions.  In this pursuit, understanding cognitive and behavioral biases has become critical.  My latest learnings have been around anchoring bias, one of the 315 behavioral biases I’ve found to be pervasive in my daily role managing HIT Capital, and advising super savers. Anchoring bias refers to our tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we receive about a specific topic.  This "anchor" overly influences how [...]

Adverse Selection Bias is when one person in a transaction has more information than the other.  It is a specific subset of selection bias and has recently been on my mind.  A couple weeks ago, in my investment research for HIT Capital I found a stock growing 25% a year and trading at a P/E of 5.  To translate that into English, I found a stock trading 4x cheaper and growing 8x faster than the average US company.  But in my next level of research, I learned [...]

A Two-Decade Reflection on Happiness and the Age Positivity Effect As I reflect on my own life journey, I realize that my pursuit of happiness is still evolving.  Initially, my goals were about me, as I focused on personal achievements like earning a degree, finding love, and competing professionally. Later my goals began to include others, like achieving financial independence for my family, and creating a business.  Now my  focus is just as much on me as on others, like supporting my wife’s mission to help our [...]

Imagine strolling through your favorite supermarket on a Sunday evening after finishing a game of soccer with your friends. You're worn out, hungry, and the air is filled with the tempting aroma of freshly cooked pastries. As you pass the second vendor he is frying up some crackling crispy pork, your mouth waters at the thought of biting into it. Your stomach is screaming "Yes!" and before you even have a chance to weigh the pros and cons, you find yourself buying some. This instinctive, visceral response [...]

It’s not often I get that lump in my stomach but yesterday it happened. Assertio Holdings, an investment of mine, had a stellar first half of the year. They were cheap, growing, and just closed a deal reducing their risk and adding a potential multi-billion dollar product to their repertoire. As I sat down to listen to their quarterly update, out of the corner of my eye, I saw a flash of red, Assertio's stock price plummeted. The market had just closed and their share price was down [...]

At HIT Capital, our stock picking process begins with filling the top of the funnel with as many stocks as possible. In 2014, I started value investing with data on 2000 stocks, and now nine years later we are up to 42,280. As I look back and review the path we took to get here, two primary and intertwined hurdles jump out, overcoming the mere-exposure behavioral bias and learning how to code. In 2013, the subset of 2000 stocks I was using were the same ones utilized [...]

When reviewing the stock market to gain insights into the future I prefer to use two tools or let's say lenses. The first lens is a magnifying glass of which I attempt to see what the market is doing today, tomorrow or next week. The second lens is a set of bifocals of which I use the magnifying portion to focus in on the market's value today, and then with that knowledge I look up through the distant lens to see the market further out. Magnifying Glass What [...]

We learned in the last post on the Dunning Kruger Effect that our knowledge does not necessarily track our confidence.  My knowledge of the unknown is limited and therefore I’d prefer to be prepared for the unexpected.  Is that even feasible?  Let’s dive into the ultimate unknown, our own and others' ability to stay alive.  None of us think we are going to die tomorrow but there are a number of known and unknown risks that could wipe us all from existence: nuclear war, asteroid collision, volcano eruption, [...]

A little over a year ago, if you would have asked me about a European war, I would have betted against you and in reality I did.  I had multiple investments in Russian run businesses and today I have none.  As information became more readily available, the unknown risk transitioned into a perceived risk and now has become our reality.  How can we plan for future unknown unknowns like the war in Eastern Europe? Acknowledgement The first step is acknowledging that you don’t know everything.  Our Society and [...]

In my last blog post I addressed what action bias is, and why we, as humans, tend toward this bias. Hopefully looking through a few more examples will help you identify where you tend toward action bias, and then help you set up ways to minimize its effects on you. The following 10 examples are situations where taking action does not warrant praise and has proven more often than not to provide a detrimental outcome. The first 8 are personal finance, investment and business related, the next two [...]

  Have you ever been stuck in traffic and found yourself honking the horn, waving your fist, or even releasing the bird?  Did any of your actions improve the situation? Maybe you are similar to my parents who live where there is no traffic, but where there is gossip.  Have you ever listened to someone talk about someone else and then validated their thoughts?  Then in hindsight realized you should have done nothing of the sort. Ok, so you don’t drive in traffic or listen to gossip (congratulations!).  [...]

In my last post, I connected an increase in anxiety with the additional choices and freedom brought on by financial independence.  Thanks to Barry and Danielle’s insights I was able to take a step back and see what was happening inside my head, Choice Overload. I have a natural tendency to maximize every decision, and when I face multiple decisions at once it leads to decision deferral, and decision fatigue.  While in my mind I was trying to do great things, in reality I was like the [...]

Sarah and my financial independence dream was coming to fruition and it was inevitable we were going to reach our magic number. So why, at the same time, did I feel overwhelmed and full of anxiety? Everything I heard or read up until this point led us to believe financial freedom would be just that, freeing. But so far it was more stressful than freeing. I felt the weight of opportunity upon our shoulders. Since the beginning of time, we as first world humans have never had more [...]

It is 8:30 am on Wednesday, day 3 of a 6-day cold spell across Texas.  We lost power around 2 am Monday and have been relying on our fireplace, camping gear, and friends for warmth.  I once laughed at the fact, 90% of homes in Houston had fireplaces.  Thank goodness we bought one of those homes, as the fireplace is keeping our living room a toasty 48 deg F! The Damage In addition to losing power, our water has stopped flowing, and the technique of dripping faucets is [...]

My sister shared the following riddle based on implicit bias with me last week.  If you are free from bias, good luck :) The Riddle A man and his son are in a terrible car accident and the father dies.  The boy is rushed to the hospital and in need of surgery.  Once in the operating room the doctor comes in, looks at the boy, and says “I can’t operate on him; he is my son!”. How can that be?  Who is the surgeon? Was the answer quick [...]

Do you think you are a better driver than your friends? Is common sense ingrained in our veins? It appears not. In the 1970’s psychologists started proving we repeatedly make irrational judgements and decisions in similar circumstances. In fact, 93% of Americans surveyed thought they were a better driver than the median. That is not our common sense shining through, but one of many behavioral biases, and in this case illusory superiority. Uncertainty We each suffer from behavioral and cognitive biases and during times of uncertainty, like [...]

When I first wrote about the mental model for purchases I did not imagine that my own personal case study would follow.  But then again, who would have thought Hurricane Harvey was going to bring more than 60 inches of rainfall.  That volume of rain shattered the previous record by more than 12 inches! It has now been almost 600 days since thirteen of those inches found their way into our home and our entire first floor was destroyed.  Since being rescued on August 30th, 2017, we have [...]